Estimating the US Light Vehicle Market Size in 2035: Impact of Ride-Sharing, Electric Vehicles, and Autonomous Driving
Overview
This paper estimates the overall market size for light vehicles in the US by 2035 by analyzing three significant industry changes: ride-sharing services, electric vehicle adoption, and autonomous driving technology. The author concludes that while EV adoption will significantly impact the market, ride-sharing and autonomous vehicles will have minimal effects, with population growth and urbanization trends also influencing demand.
What this coursework covers
- Impact of ride-sharing services on personal vehicle demand and market size
- Electric vehicle adoption trends and projected 25% market share by 2035
- Autonomous driving technology development and regulatory barriers affecting adoption
- Socio-economic factors including population growth, aging demographics, and urbanization
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Individual Written Assignment
I will estimate the overall market size for light vehicles in the US in 2035 based on the three significant changes in the auto industry and long-term socio-economic trends. Ride-share services have gained popularity over the last decade and are expected to continue growing. According to Statista, the global ride-hailing market was valued at $108.32 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach $185.12 billion by 2025 (Ride-Sharing & Ride-Hailing Market Research Report, 2022). As more people opt for ride-sharing services, the demand for personal vehicles could decline. However, this trend may not significantly impact the light vehicle market size since ride-sharing services are mainly used for short trips and do not replace the need for personal vehicles entirely (Ride-Sharing & Ride-Hailing Market Research Report, 2022). Therefore, the assumption is that ride-sharing services will have a negligible impact on the overall light vehicle market size in 2035.
Next, let's consider the increasing adoption of electric vehicles. Electric vehicle sales have been on the rise in recent years, driven by concerns about the environment and fuel efficiency. The Biden administration has also proposed an ambitious plan to transition to electric vehicles, which includes incentives for EV purchases and investment in charging infrastructure. According to a report by BloombergNEF, EVs will account for 58% of new passenger car sales by 2040 (Ride-Sharing & Ride-Hailing Market Research Report, 2022).