Terrorist Forecasting: Intelligence Analysis of Imminent Attack Scenarios on American Soil
Overview
This paper analyzes intelligence from NSA, Counter-terrorism Center, and Department of Homeland Security to forecast potential terrorist attacks on major U.S. cities by Al Qaida. The analysis employs ASAP methodology and CBRN frameworks to identify vulnerable targets, attack methods ranging from weapons of mass destruction to conventional firearms, and suspected perpetrator logistics including use of unregistered vehicles and disguised entry methods.
What this research paper covers
- Introduction and threat assessment from post-9/11 context
- CBRN analysis including dirty bombs, sarin gas, and conventional weapons scenarios
- Intelligence findings on suspect procurement, logistics via unregistered vans, and disguise tactics
- Multiple attack scenario planning and Al Qaida operational capabilities
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Terrorist Forecasting
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Terrorist Forecasting
Analyzing the intelligence provided by NSA, Counter-terrorism Center, and Department of Homeland Security reflects an imminent terrorist attack in the American Soil. over the years, especially after the 9/11 attack USA has been a threat to AL Qaida, ISIS, and other terror groups across the world. Thus, Al Qaida, on of largest terror group in the world, is planning to retaliate and are targeting largest cities in the USA with maximum casualties3. This research paper aims to use raw intelligence and other terror-related intercepts to connect the dots and determine the most vulnerable cities and the exact date and time of the attack. This research paper will incorporate the ASAP methodology to reflect the most relevant signals in this particular attack 6.
Additionally, it will also focus on several factors, for example, the bioterrorism cycle, Al Qaida martyrs, and how the two are interlinked in the forecasted attack. Through the analysis, the paper will discuss the intelligence recovered and use it to forecast and determine hypothetical attack scenarios in USA soil for the next three or nine months.
CBRN, Logistics, Timeframe, Place
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) will be used to explain the kind of attack scenario we are expecting and how to protect people 1. The goals of terrorists are to create weapons that lead to mass destruction.