Analogical Versus Case-Based Reasoning: Assessing Terrorist Threat Levels to US Homeland Security
Overview
This paper compares analogical and case-based reasoning approaches, then applies case-based reasoning to analyze the relative threat levels posed by Al Qaeda and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to US Homeland Security. Using historical attack data and organizational structure analysis, the paper argues that Al Qaeda represents a more significant long-term threat due to its extensive operational history, global network of branches, and demonstrated capacity for successful attacks.
What this essay covers
- Definition and distinction between analogical reasoning and case-based reasoning as cognitive models
- Historical analysis of Al Qaeda's major attacks from 1998 to 2005 and subsequent operational evolution into multiple branches
- Overview of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's recent emergence and 2016 separation from Al Qaeda
Preview
Analogical Versus Case-Based Reasoning
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Analogical Versus Case-Based Reasoning
The world is full of issues that require human reasoning to come up with a solution, strategy, or make a sound judgment. For instance, climate change caused by human activities is a global concern that needs deep reasoning to ensure its effects are counteracted in the early stages before they get out of hand. The reason, in this case, could be analogical or case-based. Analogical reasoning in the form of thinking involves finding a standard relational system between two or more exemplars (Prade & Richard, 2017). An example is likening life to a pizza box. No one knows how their near or far future is as we are not sure of the content in a pizza box until we open it. Case-based reasoning uses cognitive science and artificial intelligence as primary models for reasoning. It argues that a problem can be solved by retrieving similar stored “cases” that describe the issue under question and using the same solutions to solve the current problem (Richter & Weber, 2016). Therefore, based on Al Qaeda’s (AQ) past cases, it is likely to become more dangerous to the US Homeland security than Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Al Qaeda is probably a terrifying group of terrorists globally. It is linked to most of the attacks that have happened in the world since the 1990s.