The Future of Coffee in 2050: Climate Change Impacts on Global Production and Farmer Livelihoods
Overview
This paper examines the projected impacts of climate change on global coffee production by 2050, focusing on how rising temperatures and water shortages will affect the two dominant coffee species, Arabica and Robusta. The essay argues that climate change poses an existential threat to coffee cultivation, with predictions suggesting 60% of wild coffee species facing extinction and up to 80% reduction in Arabica production within seven decades, potentially affecting 25 million smallholder farmers worldwide.
What this essay covers
- Introduction to coffee's global importance and climate sensitivity
- Temperature requirements and vulnerability of Arabica and Robusta species
- Socio-economic impacts on smallholder farmers and adaptation challenges
- Extinction projections and sustainability predictions for coffee production by 2050
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The Future of Coffee in 2050
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The Future of Coffee in 2050
Coffee ranks top among the most globally traded items and contribute to millions of farmers' livelihoods significantly. Being a climate-sensitive perennial crop, coffee is undoubtedly susceptible to climatic changes. Increasing temperatures and water shortages will negatively impact the coffee and lower its production. With the growing concern for coffee, there are reportedly 25 million smallholder farmers who will likely be affected in the future. In more than 60 countries across the tropics, the coffee yield will substantially reduce, especially during the plant's vegetative and reproductive stages (Lemelin 2019). For instance, increased temperatures and precipitation often negatively influence the crop's flowering, fruiting, and bean quality. Besides, variables due to climate changes also increase the incidence of pests and diseases that can likely reduce its yield while raising its production cost.
Worldwide, Robusta and Arabica comprise nearly 99% of the global production of coffee. Arabica used in specialty coffees registers its best growth under temperatures ranging between 18 and 22 degrees Celsius. On the contrary, Robusta is of lower quality. However, it is more challenging and highly productive between 22 and 28 degrees Celsius (Pham et al., 2019). Often, bean quality, including the yield of both species, reduces outside these temperature ranges. This is an indicator of their sensitivity to changes in climatic conditions. Also, because coffee plantations can last 30 years and remain productive beyond 50 years, they will likely be influenced by climate change and variability.