XYZ Inc. is a small company that conducts seminars on productivity issues for corporate executives. XYZ Inc. focuses on improving the quality of work and the attitude of workers in service organizations. The company tries to provide seminar participants with the tools essential for dealing with hard-to-measure issues. Originally, its seminars were geared toward hospital administration — specifically, topics included how to motivate nursing staffs and how to provide quality care for patients. Over the years, the demand for seminars has grown, as has the company’s client base. Clientsnow include insurance executives who want to improve the quality and productivity of their claims recorders, travel agency directors who want to improve the service of their agencies, and managers of secretarial pools who wish to improve the attitudes in their offices.
XYZ Inc. has offered one seminar each season since 2015. Each seminar lasts for one week and is typically held at a resort or spa. The location has varied over the years, but the winter seminars have tended to be in Liverpool, the spring seminars in Birmingham, the summer seminars in the Cardiff, and the fall seminars in the London. The following table shows the number of persons attending seminars since XYZ Inc. began.
Quarter
Year | Winter | Spring | Summer | Fall |
2015 | 85 | 72 | 73 | 62 |
2016 | 82 | 92 | 89 | 66 |
2017 | 95 | 94 | 96 | 78 |
2018 | 95 | 94 | 93 | 78 |
2019 | 89 | 87 | 95 | 82 |
XYZ Inc. is considering a major expansion program. Before committing to it, however, the company would like to be able to forecast the size of its seminars. XYZ Inc. is wondering if it should expand in all four seasons or if it should concentrate on one.The company would like to know if the growth has been even in all four regions or not.
a) What is the purpose of the forecasting analysis?
b) Based on the information given in the case, develop the forecasting model appropriate to solve the problem. Justify its selection over other techniques. You are required to plot the data and interpret the pattern exhibited by the diagram.
c) Show the calculations in the form of tables to derive the projected attendance through 2020.
d) Give appropriate three (3) examples of measures of forecast accuracy obtained from the results?
e) Give your recommendation on the management’s options.