The Bechtal Tire Company (BTC) is a supplier of automotive tires for U.S. car companies. BTC has hired you to analyze its sales. For this problem, do all the work in Forecast X™ and be sure to request the MAPE in the statistics tab. Data from 1995 Q1 through 2016 Q4 are given in the following table (in thousands of units):
|
Period |
Sales of Tires |
Period |
Sales of Tires |
Period |
Sales of Tires |
Period |
Sales of Tires |
Period |
Sales of Tires |
||||
|
Mar-95 |
2,029 |
Mar-00 |
1,752 |
Mar-05 |
2,155 |
Mar-10 |
1,994 |
Mar-14 |
1,914 |
||||
|
Jun-95 |
2,347 |
Jun-00 |
2,138 |
Jun-05 |
2,231 |
Jun-10 |
2,251 |
Jun-14 |
2,076 |
||||
|
Sep-95 |
1,926 |
Sep-00 |
1,927 |
Sep-05 |
1,971 |
Sep-10 |
1,855 |
Sep-14 |
1,787 |
||||
|
Dec-95 |
2,162 |
Dec-00 |
1,546 |
Dec-05 |
1,875 |
Dec-10 |
1,852 |
Dec-14 |
1,763 |
||||
|
Mar-96 |
1,783 |
Mar-01 |
1,506 |
Mar-06 |
1,850 |
Mar-11 |
2,042 |
Mar-15 |
1,707 |
||||
|
Jun-96 |
2,190 |
Jun-01 |
1,709 |
Jun-06 |
1,551 |
Jun-11 |
2,273 |
Jun-15 |
2,019 |
||||
|
Sep-96 |
1,656 |
Sep-01 |
1,734 |
Sep-06 |
1,515 |
Sep-11 |
2,218 |
Sep-15 |
1,898 |
||||
|
Dec-96 |
1,491 |
Dec-01 |
2,002 |
Dec-06 |
1,666 |
Dec-11 |
1,672 |
Dec-15 |
1,454 |
||||
|
Mar-97 |
1,974 |
Mar-02 |
2,025 |
Mar-07 |
1,733 |
Mar-12 |
1,898 |
Mar-16 |
1,706 |
||||
|
Jun-97 |
2,276 |
Jun-02 |
2,376 |
Jun-07 |
1,576 |
Jun-12 |
2,242 |
Jun-16 |
1,878 |
||||
|
Sep-97 |
1,987 |
Sep-02 |
1,970 |
Sep-07 |
1,618 |
Sep-12 |
2,247 |
Sep-16 |
1,752 |
||||
|
Dec-97 |
2,425 |
Dec-02 |
2,122 |
Dec-07 |
1,282 |
Dec-12 |
1,827 |
Dec-16 |
1,560 |
||||
|
Mar-98 |
2,064 |
Mar-03 |
2,128 |
Mar-08 |
1,401 |
Mar-13 |
1,669 |
Mar-17 |
|||||
|
Jun-98 |
2,517 |
Jun-03 |
2,538 |
Jun-08 |
1,535 |
Jun-13 |
1,973 |
Jun-17 |
|||||
|
Sep-98 |
2,147 |
Sep-03 |
2,081 |
Sep-08 |
1,327 |
Sep-13 |
1,878 |
Sep-17 |
|||||
|
Dec-98 |
2,524 |
Dec-03 |
2,223 |
Dec-08 |
1,494 |
Dec-13 |
1,561 |
Dec-17 |
|||||
|
Mar-99 |
2,451 |
Mar-04 |
2,027 |
Mar-09 |
1,456 |
||||||||
|
Jun-99 |
2,718 |
Jun-04 |
2,727 |
Jun-09 |
1,876 |
||||||||
|
Sep-99 |
2,229 |
Sep-04 |
2,140 |
Sep-09 |
1,646 |
||||||||
|
Dec-99 |
2,190 |
Dec-04 |
2,270 |
Dec-09 |
1,813 |
- Write a report to Bechtal Tire Company in which you explain what a time-series decomposition analysis shows about its tire sales. Include in your discussion seasonal, cyclical, and trend components.
- Show a time-series graph with the actual data and the values that the time-series decomposition model would predict for each quarter from 1995 Q1 through 2017 Q4 (some data will be missing for certain historical quarters, and, of course for 2017, you will have only the forecast values).
- If actual sales for 2017 were Q1 = 1,445.1, Q2 = 1,683.8, Q3 = 1,586.6, and Q4 = 1,421.3, what MAPE would result from your 2017 forecast?
How does this MAPE compare to the MAPE Forecats X™ calculated for the historic period?
