John is responsible for coming up with a forecast of

John is responsible for coming up with a forecast of the number of visitors to Metro Zoo. He has gathered the following data on the number of visitors over the last seven weeks:

Week

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Visitors

620

730

880

700

830

1,020

900

Based on the data above, what is John’s forecast of the number of visitors for week 8 using each of the following methods?

  1. Naïve forecast.

  1. A three-period moving average

  1. A five-week weighted moving average using a weight of 0.3 for t-1 (i.e., one period before), 0.25 for t-2 (i.e., two periods before), 0.2 for t-3 (i.e., three periods before), 0.15 for t-4 (i.e., four periods before) and 0.1 for t-5 (i.e., five periods before).

  1. An Exponential Smoothing method, assuming that the forecast for week 5 was 900, using a value of 0.3 for .

 

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