Forecast the data for 2000 with exponential smoothing with w = 0.3 and w = 0.7. Is this a better forecast than the moving average? Compare RMSEs for moving average and exponential forecast to answer “Is this a better forecast than the moving average” ? Use 166.63, the mean of all 36 months, as the initial forecast for Jan. 1998 for both exponential smoothing forecast.
|
Time |
CPI |
forecast(w=0.3) |
(A-F)^2 |
forecast(w=0.7) |
(A-F)^2 |
|
|
Jan-98 |
161.0 |
166.63 |
166.63 |
|||
|
Feb-98 |
161.1 |
164.94 |
||||
|
Mar-98 |
161.4 |
163.79 |
||||
|
Apr-98 |
161.8 |
163.07 |
||||
|
May-98 |
162.3 |
162.69 |
||||
|
Jun-98 |
162.2 |
162.57 |
||||
|
Jul-98 |
162.1 |
162.46 |
||||
|
Aug-98 |
162.6 |
162.35 |
||||
|
Sep-98 |
162.6 |
162.43 |
||||
|
Oct-98 |
163.2 |
162.48 |
||||
|
Nov-98 |
163.4 |
162.70 |
||||
|
Dec-98 |
163.5 |
162.91 |
||||
|
Jan-99 |
164.2 |
163.08 |
||||
|
Feb-99 |
164.6 |
163.42 |
||||
|
Mar-99 |
165.0 |
163.77 |
||||
|
Apr-99 |
166.6 |
164.14 |
||||
|
May-99 |
166.2 |
164.88 |
||||
|
Jun-99 |
165.4 |
165.28 |
||||
|
Jul-99 |
165.8 |
165.31 |
||||
|
Aug-99 |
166.3 |
165.46 |
||||
|
Sep-99 |
167.2 |
165.71 |
||||
|
Oct-99 |
167.2 |
166.16 |
||||
|
Nov-99 |
167.1 |
166.47 |
||||
|
Dec-99 |
167.3 |
166.66 |
||||
|
Jan-00 |
167.9 |
166.85 |
1.10 |
|||
|
Feb-00 |
169.3 |
167.17 |
4.55 |
|||
|
Mar-00 |
170.7 |
167.81 |
8.37 |
|||
|
Apr-00 |
170.6 |
168.67 |
3.71 |
|||
|
May-00 |
171.1 |
169.25 |
3.41 |
|||
|
Jun-00 |
171.0 |
169.81 |
1.42 |
|||
|
Jul-00 |
171.7 |
170.16 |
2.36 |
|||
|
Aug-00 |
172.2 |
170.63 |
2.48 |
|||
|
Sep-00 |
173.3 |
171.10 |
4.85 |
|||
|
Oct-00 |
173.8 |
171.76 |
4.17 |
|||
|
Nov-00 |
173.5 |
172.37 |
1.28 |
|||
|
Dec-00 |
173.5 |
172.71 |
0.62 |
|||
|
MSE |
3.19 |
|||||
|
RMSE |
1.79 |
|||||
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