After Donald Trump won the election, the consumer confidence index rose to 93.8, a sixmonth high (www.bloomberg.com, November 23, 2016). Given new economic data, an analyst believes that there is a 75% chance that the index will fall below 90 and only a 5% chance that it will rise above 95. The analyst defines the confidence score as 1 if the index is below 90, 2 if it is between 90 and 95, and 3 if it is above 95.
a. According to the analyst, what is the probability that the confidence score is 2?
b. According to the analyst, what is the probability that the confidence score is not 1?
