The followings are some export records of an independent

The followings are some export records of an independent administrative region (IAR) of a year:

2. Forecast the export in January of the year after by using simple moving average of 4periods.
3. Forecast the export in January of the year after by exponential smoothing using ???????? = ????????−1+∝(????????−1 − ????????−1) with α = 0.5 and first forecast = actual record.
4. Forecast the export in January of the year after by linear regression using F(t) = a + b(t).
5. Determine the best forecast among the results obtained in (a), (b), (c).

You are not allow use any computer software for any calculations, only allow handwriting calculations and you need to write it step by step clearly. All answers are to be rounded to 2 decimal places.