Reconsider the Goferbroke Co. case study when using utilities, as presented in Section 9.9.
a. Beginning with the decision tree shown in Figure 9.23 (Available in one of this chapter’s Excel files), prepare to perform sensitivity analysis by expanding and organizing the spreadsheet to (1) consolidate the data and results in one section and (2) incorporate the Excel template for posterior probabilities in another section (similar to what was done in Figure 9.18 ).
FIGURE 9.23
b.
Perform sensitivity analysis by re-solving the decision tree (after using the Excel template for posterior probabilities to revise these probabilities) when the prior probability of oil is changed in turn to 0.15, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.35.
FIGURE 9.18: In preparation for performing sensitivity analysis on the full Goferbroke Co. problem, the data and results have been consolidated on the spreadsheet to the right of the decision tree.
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