1. Sales for boxes of Girl Scout cookies over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 100, 120, 115, and 123. The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 110, 114, 119, 115. What was the MAD of the 4-month forecast?
2. Daily demand for newspapers for the last 10 days has been as follows: 12, 13, 16, 15, 12, 18, 14, 12, 13, 15 (listed from oldest to most recent). Forecast sales for the next day using a three-day weighted moving average where the weights are 3, 2, and 1 (the highest weight is for the most recent number).
3. Enrollment in a particular class for the last four semesters has been 120, 126, 110, and 130 (listed from oldest to most recent). Develop a forecast of enrollment next semester using exponential smoothing with an alpha = 0.2. Assume that an initial forecast for the first semester was 120 (so the forecast and the actual were the same).
|
Actual |
Forecast |
|
120 |
120 |
|
126 |
=120+ 0.2(120-120)=120 |
|
110 |
|
|
130 |
|
|
? |
4. Management of Davis’s Department Store has used time-series with exponential smoothing with trend to forecast retail sales for May. The smoothed trend for May is 4.95 (Tt+1) and the April smoothed forecast including trend (FITt) is 84.3 and April actual sale is 105 and smoothing constant of a= 0.3. What is smoothed forecast of May including trend (FIT t+1)?
5.Management of Davis’s Department Store has used time-series with exponential smoothing with trend to forecast retail sales for the next quarter (May). The smoothed forecast for May is 90.51 (Ft+1) and the April smoothed trend is 2.468, April smoothed forecast including trend (FITt) is 84.3 and trend constant of b= 0.4. What is smoothed forecast of May including trend (FIT t+1)?
